Posted on: July 26, 2005 in Technology, Music
Recommendations as a sub problem of search, and the future of record companies
There are similarities between recommendation and search. Both offer up a smaller subset of relevant information from a much larger pool of total available information, determined by a set of criteria. In many cases, recommendation systems just rely on a different mechanism to determine search terms. Instead of the empty text box of the Google search page, a recommendation service might be initiated by your previous 10 Amazon purchases, or the last 50 tunes you’ve listened to in iTunes.
As the long tail continues to grow and consumers are faced with increasing choice (due to the effects of the infinite shelf space of online retailers), recommendation services, whether filters, aggregators, social networks or something entirely new, will play an increasing role in consumers behaviour. People will need help to find music, literature and styles that appeal to them.
But is Google a taste setter? Not really… Right now, google doesn’t do a very good job of helping me find music I might like, but they will. Chris Anderson talks about how a market will be created for reliable filters:
“So, in a Long Tail market, the brands that matter most are the tastemakers. These are the filters you trust, who point you to the niche (or mainstream) stuff you wouldn’t have found on your own. And because you trust them, you’re willing to follow their recommendations, voyaging down the tail with confidence. In the Long Tail, great filters become brands.”
What does this mean for record companies? Forget hyping the mega hits with shady back room dealings. The future record company will be adept at sifting and searching through limitless amounts of content, finding the perfect tune for you. So who will do this? BMG? Universal? I think I agree with Fool writer Rick Munarriz, who states in an interesting post:
“That’s why I believe that, years from now, the major labels won’t be the same batch of old-school vinyl pushers you see today. As ludicrous as it may seem, I think that the real power brokers in the music industry will be Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT).”
David Graton, who points to the above article, also has an interesting take on this topic. Today’s search engine as tomorrows record company? I couldn’t agree more.